Utilidad del modelo 5MPB-Toledo para predecir bacteriemia en el paciente anciano / Usefulness of the 5MPB-Toledo model to predict bacteremia in the elderly patient

Resumen Objetivo: Analizar la utilidad del modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los mayores de 65 años atendidos por infección en el servicio de urgencias (SU). Material y Método: Estudio observacional prospectivo y multicéntrico de los hemocultivos (HC) obtenidos en pacientes mayores de 65 años atendidos por infección en 66 SU españoles desde el 1 de diciembre de 2019 hasta el 30 de abril de 2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva del modelo con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y se calculó el rendimiento diagnóstico de los puntos de corte (PC) del modelo elegido con los cálculos de la sensibilidad, la especificidad, el valor predictivo positivo y el valor predictivo negativo. Resultados: Se incluyeron 2.401 episodios de HC extraídos. De ellos, se consideró como bacteriemia verdadera a 579 (24,11%) y como HC negativo a 1.822 (75,89%). Entre los negativos, 138 (5,74%) se consideraron contaminados. Se categorizó a los pacientes en bajo (0-2 puntos), moderado (3-5 puntos) y alto (6-8 puntos) riesgo, con una probabilidad de bacteriemia de 1,2%, 18,1% y 80,7%, respectivamente. El ABC-COR del modelo tras remuestreo fue de 0,908 (IC 95%: 0,897-0,924). El rendimiento diagnóstico del modelo, considerando un PC ≥ 5 puntos, obtiene una sensibilidad de 94% (IC 95%:92-96), especificidad de 77% (IC 95%:76-79) y un valor predictivo negativo de 97% (IC 95%:96-98). Conclusión: El modelo 5MPB-Toledo es de utilidad para predecir bacteriemia en los mayores de 65 años atendidos en el SU por un episodio de infección.

Abstract Objective: To analyse a risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients aged older 65 years seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. Patients and Methods: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 66 Spanish ED for patients aged older 65 years seen from December 1, 2019, to April 30, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. Results: A total of 2.401 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 579 (24.11%). The remaining 1.822 cultures (75.89%) wered negative. And, 138 (5.74%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.2%, 18.1%, and 80.7%, respectively. The model´s area under the receiver ope rating characteristic curve was 0.908 (95% CI, 0.897-0.924). The prognostic performance with a model´s cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 94% (95% CI: 92-96) sensitivity, 77% (95% CI: 76-79) specificity, and negative predictive value of 97% (95% CI: 96-98). Conclusion: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in the patients aged older 65 years seen in the emergency departments due to infections.

Validación del modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los pacientes atendidos en el servicio de urgencias por infección / Validation of a predictive model for bacteraemia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients seen in emergency departments due to infections

ObjetivoValidar un modelo sencillo de riesgo para predecir bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los pacientes atendidos en los servicios de urgencias hospitalarios (SUH) por un episodio de infección.MétodosEstudio observacional de cohortes prospectivo y multicéntrico de los hemocultivos (HC) obtenidos en 74 SUH españoles en los pacientes adultos (≥18 años) atendidos por infección desde el 1 de octubre de 2019 hasta el 29 de febrero de 2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva del modelo con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y se calculó el rendimiento diagnóstico de los puntos de corte (PC) del modelo elegidos con los cálculos de la sensibilidad, la especificidad, el valor predictivo positivo y el valor predictivo negativo.ResultadosSe incluyeron 3.843 episodios de HC extraídos. De ellos, se consideraron como bacteriemias verdaderas 839 (21,83%) y como HC negativos 3.004 (78,17%). Entre los negativos, 172 (4,47%) se consideraron contaminados. Se categorizó a los pacientes en bajo (0-2 puntos), moderado (3-5 puntos) y alto (6-8 puntos) riesgo, con una probabilidad de bacteriemia de 1,5, 16,8 y 81,6%, respectivamente. El ABC-COR del modelo tras remuestreo fue de 0,930 (IC 95%: 0,916-0,948). El rendimiento diagnóstico del modelo con un PC≥5 puntos consigue una sensibilidad del 94,76% (IC 95%: 92,97-96,12), especificidad del 81,56% (IC 95%: 80,11-82,92) y un valor predictivo negativo del 98,24% (IC 95%: 97,62-98,70).ConclusiónEl modelo 5MPB-Toledo es de utilidad para predecir bacteriemia en los pacientes atendidos en el SUH por un episodio de infección.

ObjectiveTo validate a simple risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in patients seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections.MethodsProspective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 74 Spanish ED for adults (aged 18 or older) seen from from October 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020.The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value.ResultsA total of 3.843 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 839 (21.83%). The remaining 3.004 cultures (78.17%) were negative. Among the negative, 172 (4.47%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.5%, 16.8%, and 81.6%, respectively. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.916-0.948). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 94.76% (95% CI: 92.97-96.12) sensitivity, 81.56% (95% CI: 80.11-82.92) specificity, and negative predictive value of 98.24% (95% CI: 97.62-98.70).ConclusionThe 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients attended in hospital emergency departments for infection.

Validation of a predictive model for bacteraemia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients seen in emergency departments due to infections.

OBJECTIVE: To validate a simple risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in patients seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. METHODS: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 74 Spanish ED for adults (aged 18 or older) seen from October 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. RESULTS: A total of 3.843 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 839 (21.83%). The remaining 3.004 cultures (78.17%) were negative. Among the negative, 172 (4.47%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0-2 points, intermediate risk by 3-5 points, and high risk by 6-8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.5%, 16.8%, and 81.6%, respectively. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.916-0.948). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of ≥5 points achieved 94.76% (95% CI: 92.97-96.12) sensitivity, 81.56% (95% CI: 80.11-82.92) specificity, and negative predictive value of 98.24% (95% CI: 97.62-98.70). CONCLUSION: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients attended in hospital emergency departments for infection.

Validation of a predictive model for bacteraemia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients seen in emergency departments due to infections. / Validación del modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los pacientes atendidos en el servicio de urgencias por infección.

OBJECTIVE: To validate a simple risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in patients seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. METHODS: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 74 Spanish ED for adults (aged 18 or older) seen from from October 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. RESULTS: A total of 3.843 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 839 (21.83%). The remaining 3.004 cultures (78.17%) were negative. Among the negative, 172 (4.47%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.5%, 16.8%, and 81.6%, respectively. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.916-0.948). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 94.76% (95% CI: 92.97-96.12) sensitivity, 81.56% (95% CI: 80.11-82.92) specificity, and negative predictive value of 98.24% (95% CI: 97.62-98.70). CONCLUSION: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients attended in hospital emergency departments for infection.

A multidrug-resistant microorganism infection risk prediction model: development and validation in an emergency medicine population.

The aim was to develop a predictive model of infection by multidrug-resistant microorganisms (MDRO). A national, retrospective cohort study was carried out including all patients attended for an infectious disease in 54 Spanish Emergency Departments (ED), in whom a microbiological isolation was available from a culture obtained during their attention in the ED. A MDRO infection prediction model was created in a derivation cohort using backward logistic regression. Those variables significant at p < 0.05 assigned an integer score proportional to the regression coefficient. The model was then internally validated by k-fold cross-validation and in the validation cohort. A total of 5460 patients were included; 1345 (24.6%) were considered to have a MDRO infection. Twelve independent risk factors were identified in the derivation cohort and were combined into an overall score, the ATM (assessment of threat for MDRO) score. The model achieved an area under the curve-receiver operating curve of 0.76 (CI 95% 0.74-0.78) in the derivation cohort and 0.72 (CI 95% 0.70-0.75) in the validation cohort (p = 0.0584). Patients were then split into 6 risk categories and had the following rates of risk: 7% (0-2 points), 16% (3-5 points), 24% (6-9 points), 33% (10-14 points), 47% (15-21 points), and 71% (> 21 points). Findings were similar in the validation cohort. Several patient-specific factors were independently associated with MDRO infection risk. When integrated into a clinical prediction rule, higher risk scores and risk classes were related to an increased risk for MDRO infection. This clinical prediction rule could be used by providers to identify patients at high risk and help to guide antibiotic strategy decisions, while accounting for clinical judgment.

Comparación de distintas estrategias para la predicción de muerte a corto plazo en el paciente anciano infectado / Comparison of different strategies for short-term death prediction in the infected older patient

Objetivo: Evaluar la capacidad del lactato o el índice de Charlson para mejorar la capacidad del SIRS y el qSOFA para identificar el riesgo de muerte a corto plazo de los pacientes ancianos, sin deterioro funcional grave, atendidos por sospecha de infección en urgencias. Metodología: Estudio de cohorte observacional prospectivo que incluyó a todos los pacientes de 75 años o más, sin deterioro funcional, atendidos por una infección aguda en 69 servicios de urgencias españoles durante 2 días en cada periodo estacional. Se recogieron datos demográficos, clínicos y analíticos. La variable de resultado principal fue la mortalidad por cualquier causa a los 30 días de la visita índice. Resultados: Se incluyeron 739 pacientes con una edad media de 84,9 (DE 6,0) años y 375 (50,7%) fueron mujeres. Noventa y un (12,3%) pacientes fallecieron dentro de los 30 días posteriores a la visita a urgencias. El ABC para el SIRS ≥ 2 y el qSOFA ≥ 2 fue de 0,637 (IC 95% 0,587-0,688; p<0,001) y 0,698 (IC 95% 0,635-0,761; p<0,001), respectivamente. La comparación entre esta curvas muestra una mejor capacidad de clasificación por parte del qSOFA ≥ 2 (p=0,041). Ambas escalas incrementan su capacidad de clasificación al añadir el lactato, siendo el ABC para SIRS más lactato de 0,705 (IC95% 0,652-0,758; p<0,001) y para qSOFA más lactato de 0,755 (IC95% 0,696-0,814; p<0,001), existiendo una tendencia estadística a un mejor rendimiento pronóstico de la segunda estrategia (p=0,0727). No ocurre lo mismo con el índice de Charlson, que no tiene efectos de mejora en la clasificación realizada con el SIRS (p=0,2269) ni con qSOFA (p=0,2573). Conclusiones: La inclusión de la valoración del lactato a las escalas SIRS y qSOFA mejoran su capacidad para identificar pacientes ancianos atendidos por infección en riesgo de muerte a corto plazo. La valoración del índice de Charlson no tiene efecto

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the utility of a post hoc lactate added to SIRS and qSOFA score to predict 30-day mortality in older non-severely dependent patients attended for infection in the Emergency Department (ED). Methods: We performed an analytical, observational, prospective cohort study including patients of 75 years of age or older, without severe functional dependence, attended for an infectious disease in 69 Spanish ED for 2-day three seasonal periods. Demographic, clinical and analytical data were collected. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality after the index event. Results: We included 739 patients with a mean age of 84.9 (SD 6.0) years; 375 (50.7%) were women. Ninety-one (12.3%) died within 30 days. The AUC was 0.637 (IC 95% 0.587-0.688; p<0.001) for SIRS ≥ 2 and 0.698 (IC 95% 0.635-0.761; p<0,001) for qSOFA ≥ 2. Comparing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) there was a better accuracy of qSOFA vs SIRS (p=0.041). Both scales improve the prognosis accuracy with lactate inclusion. The AUC was 0.705 (IC95% 0.652-0.758; p<0.001) for SIRS plus lactate and 0.755 (IC95% 0.696-0.814; p<0.001) for qSOFA plus lactate, showing a trend to statistical significance for the second strategy (p=0.0727). Charlson index not added prognosis accuracy to SIRS (p=0.2269) or qSOFA (p=0.2573). Conclusions: Lactate added to SIRS and qSOFA score improve the accuracy of SIRS and qSOFA to predict short-term mortality in older non-severely dependent patients attended for infection. There is not effect in adding Charlson index

Modelo de riesgo a 30 días en los pacientes ancianos con infección y síndrome de respuesta inflamatoria sistémica atendidos en los servicios de urgencias / Infection and systemic inflammatory response syndrome in older patients in the emergency department: a 30-day risk model

Objetivo: Diseñar un modelo de riesgo para predecir la mortalidad a los 30 días, y compararlo con la escala MEDS (Mortality in Emergency Department), en pacientes >= 75 años atendidos por infección con síndrome de respuesta inflamatoria sistémica (SIRS) en los servicios de urgencias (SU). Método: Estudio analítico de cohortes prospectivo que incluyó por oportunidad a pacientes >= 75 años atendidos por infección con SIRS en 13 SU españoles durante el año 2013. Se recogieron variables demográficas, comorbilidad, factores de riesgo de mala evolución, situación funcional basal, modelo de infección, y parámetros hemodinámicos, clínicos y analíticos en el momento de la primera atención. La variable de resultado principal fue mortalidad por cualquier causa a los 30 días. Resultados: Se incluyeron 379 pacientes con edad media de 84 (DE 5,8) años, 186 (49,1%) fueron mujeres, 150 (39,6%) tenían alto grado de comorbilidad y 113 (34,2%) dependencia funcional grave. Setenta y nueve pacientes (20,8%) fallecieron a los 30 días. El modelo INFURG-OLDER incluyó la presencia de tumor sólido con metástasis (OR=5,4; IC95% 1,618,2; p=0,006), la insuficiencia respiratoria (OR=3,02; IC95% 1,5-6,0; p=0,002), la insuficiencia renal (OR=2,4; IC95% 1,0-5,5; p=0,045), la hipotensión arterial (OR=2,4; IC95% 1,2-5,0; p=0,015) y la disminución del nivel de consciencia (OR=2,9; IC95% 1,4-5,8; p=0,003). El área bajo la curva (ABC) del modelo INFURG-OLDER fue de 0,78 (IC95% 0,720,84; p<0,001) y el ABC de la escala MEDS fue de 0,72 (IC95% 0,64-0,80; p<0,001). Conclusiones: El modelo INFURG-OLDER tiene buena capacidad para predecir la mortalidad a los 30 días en los pacientes >= 75 años atendidos por infección con SIRS en los SU

Objectives: To build a model to predict 30-day mortality and compare it to prediction based on the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score in patients aged 75 years or older treated for infection and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in the emergency department. Material and methods: Prospective analysis of a convenience cohort of patients aged 75 years or older treated for infection and SIRS in 13 Spanish emergency departments in 2013. We recorded demographic variables; comorbidity; risk factors for poor outcome; functional dependence at baseline; site of infection; and hemodynamic, clinical and laboratory findings on start of care.The main outcome variable was 30-day all-cause mortality. Results: Three hundred seventy-nine patients with a mean (SD) age of 84 (5.8) years were included; 186 (49.,1%) were women, 150 (39.6%) had a high degree of comorbidity, and 113 (34.2%) had a high level of functional dependence. Seventy-nine (20.8%) died within 30 days. The model built by the infection working group (INFURG) of the Spanish Society of Emergency Medicine (SEMES) included the presence of metastasis from a solid tumor (odds ratio [OR], 5.4; 95% CI, 1.6-18.2; P=.006), respiratory insufficiency (OR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.5-6.0; P=.002), renal insufficiency (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.0-5.5; P=.045), arterial hypertension (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-5.0; P=.015), and altered level of consciousness (OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.4-5.8; P=.003). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the INFURG-OLDER model was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.72-0.84; P<.001) (vs 0.72 (95% CI, 0.64-0.80; P<.001 for the MEDS model). Conclusion: The INFURG-OLDER model has good predictive ability for 30-day mortality in patients aged 75 years or older who are treated in emergency departments for SIRS

Infection and systemic inflammatory response syndrome in older patients in the emergency department: a 30-day risk model. / Modelo de riesgo a 30 días en los pacientes ancianos con infección y síndrome de respuesta inflamatoria sistémica atendidos en los servicios de urgencias.

OBJECTIVES: To build a model to predict 30-day mortality and compare it to prediction based on the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score in patients aged 75 years or older treated for infection and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in the emergency department. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective analysis of a convenience cohort of patients aged 75 years or older treated for infection and SIRS in 13 Spanish emergency departments in 2013. We recorded demographic variables; comorbidity; risk factors for poor outcome; functional dependence at baseline; site of infection; and hemodynamic, clinical and laboratory findings on start of care.The main outcome variable was 30-day all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Three hundred seventy-nine patients with a mean (SD) age of 84 (5.8) years were included; 186 (49.,1%) were women, 150 (39.6%) had a high degree of comorbidity, and 113 (34.2%) had a high level of functional dependence. Seventy-nine (20.8%) died within 30 days. The model built by the infection working group (INFURG) of the Spanish Society of Emergency Medicine (SEMES) included the presence of metastasis from a solid tumor (odds ratio [OR], 5.4; 95% CI, 1.6-18.2; P=.006), respiratory insufficiency (OR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.5-6.0; P=.002), renal insufficiency (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.0-5.5; P=.045), arterial hypertension (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-5.0; P=.015), and altered level of consciousness (OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.4-5.8; P=.003). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the INFURG-OLDER model was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.72-0.84; P<.001) (vs 0.72 (95% CI, 0.64-0.80; P<.001 for the MEDS model). CONCLUSION: The INFURG-OLDER model has good predictive ability for 30-day mortality in patients aged 75 years or older who are treated in emergency departments for SIRS.

OBJETIVO: . Diseñar un modelo de riesgo para predecir la mortalidad a los 30 días, y compararlo con la escala MEDS (Mortality in Emergency Department), en pacientes 75 años atendidos por infección con síndrome de respuesta inflamatoria sistémica (SIRS) en los servicios de urgencias (SU). METODO: Estudio analítico de cohortes prospectivo que incluyó por oportunidad a pacientes 75 años atendidos por infección con SIRS en 13 SU españoles durante el año 2013. Se recogieron variables demográficas, comorbilidad, factores de riesgo de mala evolución, situación funcional basal, modelo de infección, y parámetros hemodinámicos, clínicos y analíticos en el momento de la primera atención. La variable de resultado principal fue mortalidad por cualquier causa a los 30 días. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 379 pacientes con edad media de 84 (DE 5,8) años, 186 (49,1%) fueron mujeres, 150 (39,6%) tenían alto grado de comorbilidad y 113 (34,2%) dependencia funcional grave. Setenta y nueve pacientes (20,8%) fallecieron a los 30 días. El modelo INFURG-OLDER incluyó la presencia de tumor sólido con metástasis (OR = 5,4; IC95% 1,6- 18,2; p = 0,006), la insuficiencia respiratoria (OR = 3,02; IC95% 1,5-6,0; p = 0,002), la insuficiencia renal (OR = 2,4; IC95% 1,0-5,5; p = 0,045), la hipotensión arterial (OR = 2,4; IC95% 1,2-5,0; p = 0,015) y la disminución del nivel de consciencia (OR = 2,9; IC95% 1,4-5,8; p = 0,003). El área bajo la curva (ABC) del modelo INFURG-OLDER fue de 0,78 (IC95% 0,72- 0,84; p < 0,001) y el ABC de la escala MEDS fue de 0,72 (IC95% 0,64-0,80; p < 0,001). CONCLUSIONES: El modelo INFURG-OLDER tiene buena capacidad para predecir la mortalidad a los 30 días en los pacientes 75 años atendidos por infección con SIRS en los SU.

[Hospital emergency room diagnosis of acute appendicitis in patients aged 2 to 20 years: the INFURG-SEMES score from the emergency infections study of the Spanish Society of Emergency Medicine]. / Escala INFURG-SEMES para el diagnóstico de apendicitis aguda en los pacientes de 2 a 20 años atendidos en los servicios de urgencias hospitalarios.

OBJECTIVES: To develop the INFURG-SEMES scale (based on the emergency infections study of the Spanish Society of Emergency Medicine) using clinical and laboratory data to diagnose acute appendicitis (AA) in patients aged 2 to 20 years who were evaluated in hospital emergency departments and to compare its diagnostic yield to that of the Alvarado score. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study enrolling consecutive patients between the ages of 2 and 20 years who came to 4 hospital emergency departments with abdominal pain suggestive of AA and of less than 72 hours' duration. We collected demographic, clinical, analytic (white blood cell count, differential counts, and C-reactive protein [CRP] levels), and radiographic data (ultrasound and/or computed tomography scans). We also recorded surgical data if pertinent. The main outcome was a diagnosis of AA within 14 days of the index visit. RESULTS: We included 331 patients with a mean (SD) age of 11.8 (3.8) years; 175 (52.9%) were male. The final diagnosis was AA in 116 cases (35.0%). The INFURG-SEMES scale included the following predictors: male sex, right quadrant pain (right iliac fossa) on examination, pain on percussion, pain on walking, and elevated neutrophil count and CRP level. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the INFURG-SEMES scale and the Alvarado score, respectively, were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79-0.88) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.72-0.82). The difference was statistically significant (P=.002). CONCLUSION: The INFURG-SEMES scale may prove useful for diagnosing AA in patients aged between 2 and 20 years evaluated for abdominal pain in hospital emergency departments. The INFURG-SEMES score showed greater discrimination than the Alvarado score.

OBJETIVO: Derivar una escala clínico-analítica diagnóstica de apendicitis aguda (AA) en pacientes entre 2 y 20 años atendidos por dolor abdominal con sospecha de AA en servicios de urgencias hospitalarios (SUH), y comparar su capacidad diagnóstica con la Escala de Alvarado (EA). METODO: Estudio observacional de cohorte prospectivo que incluyó de forma consecutiva pacientes entre 2 y 20 años con dolor abdominal sospechoso de AA de menos de 72 horas de evolución atendidos en 4 SUH españoles entre junio y diciembre de 2014. Se recogieron datos demográficos, clínicos, analíticos (recuento leucocitario, fórmula y proteína C reactiva) y radiológicos (ecografía y/o TC) y, si procedía, quirúrgicos. La variable resultado principal fue el diagnóstico final de AA en los 14 días desde la visita índice. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 331 pacientes con edad media de 11,8 (DE 3,8) años, siendo 175 (52,9%) hombres. Ciento dieciséis (35,0%) tuvieron diagnóstico final de AA. La escala INFURG-SEMES incluye sexo masculino, dolor en fosa ilíaca derecha a la exploración, dolor a la percusión, dolor al caminar, presencia de neutrofilia y proteína C reactiva elevada. El área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) de dicha escala fue 0,84 (IC 95% 0,79-0,88) y para la EA 0,77 (IC95% 0,72-0,82) siendo la diferencia estadísticamente significativa (p = 0,002). CONCLUSIONES: La escala INFURG-SEMES podría ser una herramienta de ayuda para el diagnóstico de AA en los pacientes entre 2 y 20 años atendidos con dolor abdominal sospechoso de apendicitis en los SUH, y ha mostrado una mayor capacidad discriminativa que la EA.

Escala INFURG-SEMES para el diagnóstico de apendicitis aguda en los pacientes de 2 a 20 años atendidos en los servicios de urgencias hospitalarios / Hospital emergency room diagnosis of acute appendicitis in patients aged 2 to 20 years: the INFURG-SEMES score from the emergency infections study of the Spanish Society of Emergency Medicine

Objetivo. Derivar una escala clínico-analítica diagnóstica de apendicitis aguda (AA) en pacientes entre 2 y 20 años atendidos por dolor abdominal con sospecha de AA en servicios de urgencias hospitalarios (SUH), y comparar su capacidad diagnóstica con la Escala de Alvarado (EA). Métodos. Estudio observacional de cohorte prospectivo que incluyó de forma consecutiva pacientes entre 2 y 20 años con dolor abdominal sospechoso de AA de menos de 72 horas de evolución atendidos en 4 SUH españoles entre junio y diciembre de 2014. Se recogieron datos demográficos, clínicos, analíticos (recuento leucocitario, fórmula y proteína C reactiva) y radiológicos (ecografía y/o TC) y, si procedía, quirúrgicos. La variable resultado principal fue el diagnóstico final de AA en los 14 días desde la visita índice. Resultados. Se incluyeron 331 pacientes con edad media de 11,8 (DE 3,8) años, siendo 175 (52,9%) hombres. Ciento dieciséis (35,0%) tuvieron diagnóstico final de AA. La escala INFURG-SEMES incluye sexo masculino, dolor en fosa ilíaca derecha a la exploración, dolor a la percusión, dolor al caminar, presencia de neutrofilia y proteína C reactiva elevada. El área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) de dicha escala fue 0,84 (IC 95% 0,79-0,88) y para la EA 0,77 (IC95% 0,72-0,82) siendo la diferencia estadísticamente significativa (p = 0,002). Conclusiones. La escala INFURG-SEMES podría ser una herramienta de ayuda para el diagnóstico de AA en los pacientes entre 2 y 20 años atendidos con dolor abdominal sospechoso de apendicitis en los SUH, y ha mostrado una mayor capacidad discriminativa que la EA (AU)

Objectives. To develop the INFURG-SEMES scale (based on the emergency infections study of the Spanish Society of Emergency Medicine) using clinical and laboratory data to diagnose acute appendicitis (AA) in patients aged 2 to 20 years who were evaluated in hospital emergency departments and to compare its diagnostic yield to that of the Alvarado score. Methods. Prospective observational cohort study enrolling consecutive patients between the ages of 2 and 20 years who came to 4 hospital emergency departments with abdominal pain suggestive of AA and of less than 72 hours’ duration. We collected demographic, clinical, analytic (white blood cell count, differential counts, and C-reactive protein [CRP] levels), and radiographic data (ultrasound and/or computed tomography scans). We also recorded surgical data if pertinent. The main outcome was a diagnosis of AA within 14 days of the index visit. Results. We included 331 patients with a mean (SD) age of 11.8 (3.8) years; 175 (52.9%) were male. The final diagnosis was AA in 116 cases (35.0%). The INFURG-SEMES scale included the following predictors: male sex, right quadrant pain (right iliac fossa) on examination, pain on percussion, pain on walking, and elevated neutrophil count and CRP level. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the INFURG-SEMES scale and the Alvarado score, respectively, were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79-0.88) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.72-0.82). The difference was statistically significant (P=.002). Conclusions. The INFURG-SEMES scale may prove useful for diagnosing AA in patients aged between 2 and 20 years evaluated for abdominal pain in hospital emergency departments. The INFURG-SEMES score showed greater discrimination than the Alvarado score (AU)

Factores pronósticos a corto plazo en los ancianos atendidos en urgencias por infección / Short-term prognostic factors in the elderly patients seen in emergency departments due to infections

OBJETIVOS: Analizar los factores asociados a la mortalidad a corto plazo en los pacientes ancianos que acuden al servicio de urgencias (SU) por un episodio de infección. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estudio observacional, prospectivo, multicéntrico y analítico. Se incluyó consecutivamente a pacientes de 75 o más años atendidos en 8 servicios de SU por un proceso infeccioso. Se analizaron 26 variables independientes (epidemiológicas, de comorbilidad, funcionales, clínicas y analíticas) que pudieran influir en la mortalidad a corto plazo (30 días). Se realizó un estudio multivariable mediante regresión logística. RESULTADOS: Se incluyó a 488 pacientes, de los que 92 (18,9%) habían fallecido a los 30 días tras su consulta en el SU. Tres variables se asociaron de forma significativa con la mortalidad: la dependencia funcional basal grave con índice de Barthel ≤60 (odds ratio [OR] 8,92; intervalo de confianza [IC] del 95%: 4,98-15,98, p = 0,003), la existencia de una presión arterial sistólica (PAS)<90mmHg (OR 7,34; IC95%: 4,39-12,26, p = 0,005) y lactato sérico >4mmol/l (OR 21,14; IC95%: 8,94-49,97, p = 0,001). El área bajo la curva-ROC del modelo fue 0,971 (IC95%: 0,951-0,991; p < 0,001). CONCLUSIONES: Existen varios factores disponibles tras una primera atención en el SU -entre ellos la valoración funcional, la PAS y, el más importante, el lactato sérico- que determinan un mal pronóstico a corto plazo del paciente anciano que consulta por un proceso infeccioso

OBJECTIVES: To analyse factors associated with short-term mortality in elderly patients seen in emergency departments (ED) for an episode of infectious disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prospective, observational, multicentre, analytical study was carried out on patients aged 75 years and older who were treated in the ED of one of the eight participating hospitals. An assessment was made of 26 independent variables that could influence mortality at 30 days. They covered epidemiological, comorbidity, functional, clinical and analytical factors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. RESULTS: The study included 488 consecutive patients, 92 (18.9%) of whom died within 30 days of visiting the ED. Three variables were significantly associated with higher mortality: severe functional dependence, with Barthel index ≤60 [odds ratio (OR) 8,92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.98-15.98, P=.003], systolic blood pressure <90mmHg [OR 7.34; 95%CI: 4.39-12.26, P=.005] and serum lactate >4mmol/l [OR 21.14; 95%CI: 8.94-49.97, P=.001]. The area under the curve for the model was 0.971 (95%CI: 0.951-0.991; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Several factors evaluated in an initial assessment in the ED, including the level of functional dependence, systolic blood pressure and, especially, serum lactate, were found to determine a poor short-term prognosis in the elderly patients who presented with an episode of an infectious disease

Perfil y manejo inicial de los ancianos atendidos por infección en los servicios de Urgencias hospitalarios / Profile and initial management of infection in elderly patients in an Emergency Department

Objetivo. Determinar el perfil clínico y el manejo inicial de los pacientes ancianos atendidos por infección aguda en los servicios de Urgencias hospitalarios españoles y estudiar si existen diferencias en relación con los adultos más jóvenes. Metodología. Estudio descriptivo transversal multicéntrico a partir de los datos del registro INFURG-SEMES, que incluye a 79.654 pacientes de 15 años o más atendidos por una infección aguda en 49 servicios de Urgencias hospitalarios españoles entre el 10 octubre del 2010 y el 20 de septiembre del 2011. Se recogieron variables demográficas, del perfil clínico y de la atención en Urgencias. La variable clasificadora fue tener 65 años o más. Resultados. Del total de 11.399 casos, 4.255 (37,3%) tenían 65 años o más. Al comparar a los ancianos con los adultos más jóvenes, se encontraron diferencias estadísticamente significativas en cuanto a la presencia de alta comorbilidad (p<0,001), de al menos un factor de riesgo de multirresistencia (p<0,001) o de síndrome séptico (p<0,001), el tipo de infección (p<0,001), la toma de muestra para al menos un cultivo (p<0,001), la determinación de antígenos en orina (p<0,001), el tratamiento antibiótico pautado en Urgencias (p<0,001) y el destino final (p<0,001). Conclusiones. Existen importantes diferencias en el perfil y el manejo de los pacientes con infección aguda atendidos en los SUH españoles en función de la edad, que deben ser tenidas en cuenta de cara a desarrollar estrategias de mejora de la calidad y posibles líneas de investigación futura (AU)

Objective. To determine the clinical profile and the initial management of elderly patients with acute infections attending Spanish Emergency Departments (EDs), and to analyse whether there are any differences compared to younger adults. Material and methods. A descriptive, cross-sectional, multicentre study using the data recorded in the INFURG-SEMES register. It included a total of 79,654 of 15 years or over treated for an acute infection in 49 Spanish EDs between 10 October 2010 and 20 September 2011. Demographic variables, clinical profile, and care in the ED, were collected. The classifying variable was to be 65 years or over. Results. Of the total of 11,399 cases, 4,255 (37.3%) were 65 years or over. Statistically significant differences were found on comparing the elderly with the younger adults as regards the presence of a high comorbidity (P<.001), of at least one risk factor for multidrug resistance (P<.001), or septic syndrome (P<.001), type of infection (P<.001), taking of the specimen for blood culture (P<.001), determination of antigens in urine (P<.001), the antibiotic prescribed in the ED (P<.001), and final destination (P<.001). Conclusions. There are significant age-dependent differences in the profile and management of patients with infections that attend Spanish EDs, which must be taken into account when developing strategies for improving quality, as well as for future lines of research (AU)

Short-term prognostic factors in the elderly patients seen in emergency departments due to infections. / Factores pronósticos a corto plazo en los ancianos atendidos en urgencias por infección.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse factors associated with short-term mortality in elderly patients seen in emergency departments (ED) for an episode of infectious disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prospective, observational, multicentre, analytical study was carried out on patients aged 75years and older who were treated in the ED of one of the eight participating hospitals. An assessment was made of 26 independent variables that could influence mortality at 30days. They covered epidemiological, comorbidity, functional, clinical and analytical factors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. RESULTS: The study included 488 consecutive patients, 92 (18.9%) of whom died within 30days of visiting the ED. Three variables were significantly associated with higher mortality: severe functional dependence, with Barthel index ≤60 [odds ratio (OR) 8,92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.98-15.98, P=.003], systolic blood pressure <90mmHg [OR 7.34; 95%CI: 4.39-12.26, P=.005] and serum lactate >4mmol/l [OR 21.14; 95%CI: 8.94-49.97, P=.001]. The area under the curve for the model was 0.971 (95%CI: 0.951-0.991; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Several factors evaluated in an initial assessment in the ED, including the level of functional dependence, systolic blood pressure and, especially, serum lactate, were found to determine a poor short-term prognosis in the elderly patients who presented with an episode of an infectious disease.

GYM score: 30-day mortality predictive model in elderly patients attended in the emergency department with infection.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the validity of the classic sepsis criteria or systemic inflammatory response syndrome (heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, and leukocyte count) and the modified sepsis criteria (systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria plus glycemia and altered mental status), and the validity of each of these variables individually to predict 30-day mortality, as well as develop a predictive model of 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in emergency departments (ED). METHODS: A prospective cohort study including patients at least 75 years old attended in three Spanish university ED for infection during 2013 was carried out. Demographic variables and data on comorbidities, functional status, hemodynamic sepsis diagnosis variables, site of infection, and 30-day mortality were collected. RESULTS: A total of 293 patients were finally included, mean age 84.0 (SD 5.5) years, and 158 (53.9%) were men. Overall, 185 patients (64%) fulfilled the classic sepsis criteria and 224 patients (76.5%) fulfilled the modified sepsis criteria. The all-cause 30-day mortality was 13.0%. The area under the curve of the classic sepsis criteria was 0.585 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.488-0.681; P=0.106], 0.594 for modified sepsis criteria (95% CI: 0.502-0.685; P=0.075), and 0.751 (95% CI: 0.660-0.841; P<0.001) for the GYM score (Glasgow <15; tachYpnea>20 bpm; Morbidity-Charlson index ≥3) to predict 30-day mortality, with statistically significant differences (P=0.004 and P<0.001, respectively). The GYM score showed good calibration after bootstrap correction, with an area under the curve of 0.710 (95% CI: 0.605-0.815). CONCLUSION: The GYM score showed better capacity than the classic and the modified sepsis criteria to predict 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in the ED.

[Profile and initial management of infection in elderly patients in an Emergency Department]. / Perfil y manejo inicial de los ancianos atendidos por infección en los servicios de Urgencias hospitalarios.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the clinical profile and the initial management of elderly patients with acute infections attending Spanish Emergency Departments (EDs), and to analyse whether there are any differences compared to younger adults. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A descriptive, cross-sectional, multicentre study using the data recorded in the INFURG-SEMES register. It included a total of 79,654 of 15 years or over treated for an acute infection in 49 Spanish EDs between 10 October 2010 and 20 September 2011. Demographic variables, clinical profile, and care in the ED, were collected. The classifying variable was to be 65 years or over. RESULTS: Of the total of 11,399 cases, 4,255 (37.3%) were 65 years or over. Statistically significant differences were found on comparing the elderly with the younger adults as regards the presence of a high comorbidity (P<.001), of at least one risk factor for multidrug resistance (P<.001), or septic syndrome (P<.001), type of infection (P<.001), taking of the specimen for blood culture (P<.001), determination of antigens in urine (P<.001), the antibiotic prescribed in the ED (P<.001), and final destination (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: There are significant age-dependent differences in the profile and management of patients with infections that attend Spanish EDs, which must be taken into account when developing strategies for improving quality, as well as for future lines of research.

¿Son las unidades de corta estancia un recurso adecuado para la hospitalización de los pacientes ancianos con infección? / Are short-stay units an appropriate resource for hospitalising elderly patients with infection?

Objetivo. Describir las características clínicas y evolución de los pacientes ancianos (≥75 años) con sospecha de infección atendidos en los servicios de urgencias (SU) y comparar los que ingresan en una unidad de corta estancia (UCE) respecto las unidades de hospitalización convencional (UHC). Material y métodos. Estudio de cohortes prospectivo que incluyó, mediante muestreo por oportunidad, a los pacientes ≥75 años atendidos por infección en los SU de 3 hospitales universitarios españoles (año 2013). Se analizaron variables demográficas, comorbilidad, situación funcional basal, existencia de sepsis, tipo de infección, destino y mortalidad a 30 días. Resultados. Se identificaron 330 pacientes ≥75 años (edad media: 83,8±7,3). Ingresaron 306 (93%), 175 en UHC (53%) y 87 (26%) en UCE. Los principales antecedentes fueron HTA (74,5%), arritmia cardíaca (30%), enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (28%) y diabetes mellitus (26%), y como factores de multirresistencia el tratamiento antibiótico los 3 meses previos (48%) y la institucionalización (26%). El 53% presentó síndrome séptico clásico y la infección respiratoria fue la más prevalente (50%). Al comparar el ingreso en UCE o UHC se observaron diferencias estadísticamente significativas (p<0,05) en el índice de Charlson (1,95 vs. 2,51), escala de Glasgow (14,6 vs. 14,3), síndrome séptico (67% vs. 53%), sepsis grave (2,3% vs. 18%), estancia hospitalaria (4,2 días vs. 10,4) y mortalidad a 30 días (3,4% vs. 18%) respectivamente. onclusiones. Las UCE suponen una alternativa a las UHC para enfermos ancianos con sospecha de infección que requieren ingreso (AU)

Objective. To describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of elderly patients (≥ 75 years) with suspected infection attending the emergency department (ED) and to compare patients admitted to a short-stay unit (SSU) with those admitted to a conventional hospital unit (CHU). Material and methods. Prospective cohort study including, using opportunity sampling, patients ≥75 years treated for infection in the ED of 3 Spanish university hospitals (2013). Demographic variables, comorbidity, baseline performance status, presence of sepsis, infection type, destination on discharge, and mortality at 30 days were collected. Results. During the study period, 330 patients ≥75 years (mean age 83.8±7.3) were evaluated for a suspected infection in the ED, and 306 (93%) were admitted to the hospital, 175 (53%) to the CHU and 87 (26%) to the SSU. Medical history included hypertension (74.5%), arrhythmia (30%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (28%), and diabetes mellitus (26%), and risk factors for multidrug resistance, such as antibiotic treatment in 3 months prior to admission (48%), and institutionalisation (26%). A classic sepsis syndrome was found to be the source of infection in 53%, and was respiratory in half of patients. When comparing patients admitted to SSU and CHU, statistically significant differences (p<.05) were found in the Charlson index (1.95 vs. 2.51), Glasgow coma scale (14.6 vs. 14.3), classic sepsis syndrome (67% vs. 53%), severe sepsis (2.3% vs. 18%), length of stay (4.2 vs. 10.4 days), and mortality within 30 days (3.4% vs. 18%), respectively. Conclusions. SSU may be an adequate alternative to CHU for elderly patients requiring admission with suspected infection (AU)

Diagnostic accuracy of the APPY1 Test in patients aged 2-20 years with suspected acute appendicitis presenting to emergency departments.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the APPY1 Test alone and in combination with the Alvarado score (AS) to rule out acute appendicitis (AA) in patients presenting to EDs with abdominal pain suspicious for AA. METHODOLOGY: Observational study in a prospective consecutive cohort including all patients from 2 to 20 years with abdominal pain suggestive of AA in four EDs. The APPY1 Test was performed and AS was calculated to determine risk stratification for each patient. RESULTS: 321 patients enrolled (mean age 11.8 (SD 3.8) years, 52.0% male), with 32.4% low risk, 23.7% intermediate risk and 43.9% high risk according to the AS. 111 (34.6%) had AA, of whom 1 (0.9%) had a false-negative APPY1 Test result. The APPY1 Test had a sensitivity (Se) of 99.1% (95% CI 94.4% to 99.9%), specificity (Sp) of 32.9% (95% CI 26.6% to 39.7%), negative predictive value (NPV) of 98.6% (95% CI 91.2% to 99.9%) and negative likelihood ratio (LHR-) of 0.03 (0.00 to 0.19) in this population. For patients at low risk by AS, the APPY1 Test had a Se of 100% (95% CI 62.9% to 100%), NPV of 100% (95% CI 91.1% to 100%) and LHR- of 0.0 (not calculable), and for patients at intermediate risk by AS, the APPY1 Test had a Se of 94.4% (95% CI 70.6% to 99.7%), NPV of 94.7% (95% CI 71.9% to 99.7%) and LHR- of 0.18 (0.0 to 1.2), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: APPY1 Test is a potentially useful diagnostic tool to rule out AA in this population, with clinical utility primarily in those patients classified as having low clinical risk of appendicitis according to the AS.

[Are short-stay units an appropriate resource for hospitalising elderly patients with infection?] / ¿Son las unidades de corta estancia un recurso adecuado para la hospitalización de los pacientes ancianos con infección?

OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of elderly patients (≥ 75 years) with suspected infection attending the emergency department (ED) and to compare patients admitted to a short-stay unit (SSU) with those admitted to a conventional hospital unit (CHU). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective cohort study including, using opportunity sampling, patients ≥75 years treated for infection in the ED of 3 Spanish university hospitals (2013). Demographic variables, comorbidity, baseline performance status, presence of sepsis, infection type, destination on discharge, and mortality at 30 days were collected. RESULTS: During the study period, 330 patients ≥75 years (mean age 83.8±7.3) were evaluated for a suspected infection in the ED, and 306 (93%) were admitted to the hospital, 175 (53%) to the CHU and 87 (26%) to the SSU. Medical history included hypertension (74.5%), arrhythmia (30%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (28%), and diabetes mellitus (26%), and risk factors for multidrug resistance, such as antibiotic treatment in 3 months prior to admission (48%), and institutionalisation (26%). A classic sepsis syndrome was found to be the source of infection in 53%, and was respiratory in half of patients. When comparing patients admitted to SSU and CHU, statistically significant differences (p<.05) were found in the Charlson index (1.95 vs. 2.51), Glasgow coma scale (14.6 vs. 14.3), classic sepsis syndrome (67% vs. 53%), severe sepsis (2.3% vs. 18%), length of stay (4.2 vs. 10.4 days), and mortality within 30 days (3.4% vs. 18%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: SSU may be an adequate alternative to CHU for elderly patients requiring admission with suspected infection.

Utilidad de la procalcitonina en el paciente anciano con sospecha de infección / Usefulness of procalcitonin in the elderly patient with a suspected infection

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